Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Best. Rankings. Ever.

FAKE STANDINGS:

TEAM (W, L, T) = Win%
1). Red Red Even (45, 10, 0) = .818
2). Boats 'n Hoes (41, 14, 0) = .745
3). Hackin Holts (33, 22, 0) = .600
3). Dorchestah (33, 22, 0) = .600
5). Pigeon Boys (32, 22, 1) = .593
6). Jew Lovers (29, 26, 0) = .527
7). Polar Bears (27, 26, 2) = .509
8). Angry Brets (23, 32, 0) = .418
9). Beckett List (20, 35, 0) = .364
10). Boston Pancakes (17, 38, 0) = .309
11). Za Brah (16, 38, 1) = .296
12). Smell of Penetration (11, 44, 0) = .200

The above standings are based on what each team’s record would be if they played the 11 other teams in the league every week. Even though the true standings on the fantasy site are all that matter for real, this is a better indication of how each team is truly performing each week. It basically takes the luck factor out of the equation. I hope you all appreciate this because I haven’t slept for 3 days while figuring this out, and I might be going blind from staring at the same numbers over and over again on my tiny-ass computer screen. Either way, these fake standings give me a good jumping off point for the 1st Power Rankings Blog of 2010. Let’s go from worst to first (my rankings are based on real standings + fake standings + some subjectiveness based on how the teams are currently performing, who they’ve beat, etc):

12). Smell of Penetration (Real Standings = 12th place, Fake Standings = 12th place)
I guess I should keep this short since certain people take exception to me talking about my own team in my own blog. Maybe I should have an entirely separate blog called, “500 Reasons Why Ben Sardella is the Greatest Fantasy Sports Manager in History.” Maybe that will quiet some people down.
While this team is almost definitely the worst in the league by a wide margin, maybe it’s just the result of a brutal early season schedule. Their first 4 losses came against 3 teams tied for 1st place and a team tied for 5th. Last week’s loss to 9th place Polar Bears is embarrassing on many levels, but the Penetrations aren’t giving up, as evidenced by 2 potentially key roster moves this week: adding reliever Matt Thornton (who may replace Bobby Jenks as the White Sox closer), and picking up Dallas Braden fresh off his perfect game. Why was Braden even available? We’ll get to that during the Beckett List’s review.
The Good: Jason Heyward was worth the 12th round pick as he’s already achieved keeper status according to owner Ross Gariepy. Other players off to solid starts include Nelson Cruz, Tim Hudson…that is all.
The Bad: Everything else. Last place in 3 pitching categories, 11th place in 2 pitching categories. No better than 7th place in any offensive category. This has been an UGLY start.

11). Za Brah (Real Standings = T-10th place, Fake Standings = 11th place)
The Brahs began the year with a little bad luck, losing week 1 to Boats ‘n Hoes when they would have beaten most other teams that week. But the next 4 weeks fall in line with where this team should be: in the basement. And maybe owner Ryan Lavery could see this coming even before his team’s 3rd straight loss last week. That’s why he was working overtime to put together a trade to shake up his roster. As everyone should have seen, last Thursday the Brahs & the Boston Pancakes pulled off a blockbuster trade that could have repercussions for years to come. Although both owners were being constantly bothered by phone calls from Ben Sardella--who desperately wanted to be part of this trade because he was bored--they managed to come to an agreement that saw both teams trade away keepers. In exchange for giving up Adrian Gonzalez and James Shields, the Za Brahs received Felix Hernandez, DiceBB, and Stephen Drew. I guess the thinking here was that 2 starting pitchers could help Za Brah escape his 11th place spots in both ERA & WHIP. The only question remaining is, “Why the fuck would you want DiceBB if you are trying to improve your pitching stats?” And why trade away a guy like Shields who actually has better numbers than Felix right now? So nevermind, there are actually hundreds of questions about this trade.
The Good: Pujols of course. Vernon Wells (clearly juicing). Matt Garza turning into a legit ace before our eyes.
The Bad: Significant injuries to Ellsbury & Granderson. Carlos Zambrano sucking bad enough to be the 1st $18million bullpen man in baseball. DiceBB (pending tonight’s start for the Sox).

10). Team Boston Pancakes (Real Standings = T-7th place, Fake Standings = 10th place)
The Pancakes really bottomed out last week as Matty P’s team wouldn’t have beaten any other team in the league. He also got extremely lucky with his week 1 win…playing an Angry Brets team that was still in spring training mode. So things could certainly be worse for this perennial also-ran. Just like with the Za Brahs, maybe the Pancakes sensed their downward trend and were hoping a blockbuster trade would be the spark to ignite a 3-year dormant volcano of good results. Although it would be foolish to think Shields’ numbers will be better than Felix’s by the end of the season, it still seems like the Pancakes got the better end of the trade. Shields will be at least solid in the rotation, and A-Gon is a potential game-changer at 1B. Matty P is counting on him to right the ship offensively, specifically with HR, RBI and OBP where the Pancakes rank near the bottom of the league. Don’t worry too much Pancakes…you know what they say, “Nothing like a guaranteed win against the worst team ever to lighten the mood in the clubhouse.” And that’s exactly what you’ll get in week 6.
The Good: The other A-Gon (Alex Gonzalez) with 10HR already. Jeff Niemann.
The Bad: Zack Greinke’s win total (0). Brian Fuentes’ ERA (7.04). A-Rod’s HR total (3).

9). The Beckett List (Real Standings = T-10th place, Fake Standings = 9th place)
Though they’ve been slightly unlucky compared to some of the teams doing better in the real standings, the Beckett List hasn’t shown anything yet that makes me believe they can climb up the ladder into the playoff mix. As a matter of fact, this team is trending in the wrong direction as they would have only won 2 out of 22 possible games in weeks 4 & 5. Not good…not good at all.
The pitching stats & most of the hitting stats are very middle-of-the-packish right now, with the exception of Runs & OBP, where the Becketts are 2nd to last and dead last, respectively. One has to wonder how much keeper Brian Roberts being out almost the whole season has affected these categories.
If a finger needs to be pointed at 1 person in particular for the early season struggles, point no further than to owner Bryan Paul. How many other owners would release a pitcher on the same day he throws a perfect game? Braden got that bad news only moments after pitching the 19th perfect game in MLB history: he was being released to make room for the immortal Alfredo Simon. Great work, Beckett List!
The Good: Ty Wigginton & Casey McGehee…both free agent pickups that have been outstanding so far this year. Andrew McCutchen (filling up all the offensive categories). Livan Hernandez…really??
The Bad: You can easily survive this league with 1 flop of a keeper, maybe even 2. But 3?? That can pretty much bury a team for the season (I know from experience). It didn’t seem crazy at the time for Bryan to select Josh Beckett, Brian Roberts, and Grady Sizemore as keepers…but it seems crazy now. Two of those guys (Beckett, Sizemore) are putting up career-worst numbers, and Roberts has only 14ABs on the season due to injury (and not due back any time soon). Finally we’ve found the reason that the Becketts are a 1-win team.

8). Polar Bears Rule II (Real Standings = T-7th place, Fake Standings = 7th place)
The Pbears have a nice little Jekyll & Hyde thing going on to start the year. Two great weeks (weeks 3 & 5) and 3 pitiful weeks. Luckily there are at least 4 teams playing worse than the Pbears right now, and the team finds itself only 1 game out of the early playoff picture. But the pessimist might look at last week and say owner Fred Friedner is lucky to have 2 wins. If the Smell of Penetration had been able to get 1 more HR & RBI on Sunday, and 1 fucking Save over the whole week, things would be looking pretty bleak for the Pbears right now. And if Jason Heyward hadn’t missed the 2nd half of the week for the Penetrations, you can bet your ass the Pbears would be looking at an embarrassing loss in week 5.
Looking at the 3 offensive keepers for the Pbears, it seems they are all putting up above average numbers right now, but none of them really tearing the cover off the ball. Maybe that’s all it’s going to take to launch a hot streak for this Pbears team…when the keepers start putting up the expected stats. Speaking of keepers, is this a mere coincidence?? The same day I posted my blog and mentioned Edwin Jackson as the worst keeper in the history of keepers last week, Fred drops him. I think not. I think Fred wanted to distance himself from the dirty Edwin Jackson name as quickly as possible. Anyway, I think we officially have our 1st keeper dropped. Correct me if I’m wrong.
The Good: Paul Konerko (13HR). Brett Gardner (14SB). Both looking at 50 game suspensions later this year. Longoria…OK fine, he’s doing a little better than “just above average.” The Matt Lindstrom pickup.
The Bad: Besides Edwin Jackson? Lance Berkman. Travis Hafner (just because Fred talked so much shit about that move).
7). The Angry Brets (Real Standings = T-7th place, Fake Standings = 8th place)
I’m gonna go against the fake standings here and put the Brets in 7th place over the Polar Bears, mostly because I just told Fred via Gchat that he’d be 7th in my rankings. And I love screwing with him. But also because the Brets have a legitimate gripe as they were extremely unlucky in having to face the Pigeon Boys in week 4, one of only 3 teams they would have lost to. If not for that, the Brets could be looking at an amazing 2-game win streak right now.
There’s no “one” problem area for this team right now. Instead there are minor problems in all areas. Except for saves, the Brets don’t rank very high in any statistical category.
The Good: Chase Utley & Rod Barajas are the only 2 guys hitting well so far. David Price, Jon Garland, and the relievers are the only pitchers consistently contributing.
The Bad: 3 starting pitchers that owner Matt Blanchette fully expected to dominate this year are off to varying degrees of bad starts. There’s the disappointing: Verlander (a keeper); there’s god-awful: Peavy; and there’s “holy shit, you’re still employed by a major league team”: Vazquez. And to make matters worse, Vazquez was picked in the 6th round (or 2nd round if you don’t include the keeper rounds).

6). The Jew Lovers (Real Standings = T-1st place, Fake Standings = 6th place)
It seems unfair to put the J.Lovers this low since they technically are tied for 1st place in the real standings, and they’ve got a 3-game win streak going. But all of the advanced stats & metrics point to this team’s pending doom. The 3 wins in a row consist of beating Boats ‘n Hoes due to the Runs Scored tiebreaker, and then wins over 2 of the worst teams: Pancakes & Penetration. As far as the fake standings go, it’s been pretty hit-or-miss for Werner’s team. In weeks 1 & 3, he could have only lost to 1 team each week. In week 2, he couldn’t have beat anyone. And in week 5, he could only beat 3 teams, including the team he did beat, Boston Pancakes.
Even worse for the Lovers is their next 4 matchups are all against teams in the upper echelon of the standings. This blogger has a feeling that the next time we check in on the Lovers via Power Rankings, his place in the real standings will align better with his place in the fake standings.
The Good: Kelly Johnson (10HR). Roy Halladay (obviously). Barry Zito (weird to see him almost earning his $17million/year or whatever ridiculous salary he’s got).
The Bad: The Keepers (not including Halladay). You look at Werner’s 3 offensive keepers--Mauer, Howard, Hamilton--and the stats don’t look awful. But Mauer’s already missed significant time & only has 1HR. Howard only recently started putting up decent numbers. And Hamilton’s stats are pretty pedestrian. The Lovers’ last place standing in HR says it all.

5. Hackin’ Holts (Real Standings = T-1st place, Fake Standings = T-3rd place)
This isn’t a knock on the Holts as much as it’s a credit to the 4 teams ranked higher in these Power Rankings. The defending champs have done almost everything asked of them so far, and of course they’re tied for the best record in the league. After losing in week 1 to a highly-ranked team (Dorchestah), the Graham Holt-owned team has rattled off 4 straight W’s. The only knock here is that those wins have come against 4 of the lower-ranked teams in the league. Again, not Graham’s fault since he doesn’t make the schedule, but we’re gonna hold him in this 5th spot of the rankings until he faces some tougher competition. The next 2 weeks should prove challenging against Boats ‘n Hoes & Jew Lovers. A belated congrats to Graham on week 2, when he would have demolished the entire league.
The Good: Plenty from the pitching, including Ubaldo Jimenez (no-hitter + 6wins + 0.93 ERA), Sabathia, Cain, and Pettite (until he started showing his age last week). Cano & Wright have been solid.
The Bad: Teixeira (until he faced the Sox last weekend of course), Furcal (DL).

4. Dorchestah 34%ers (Real Standings = T-5th place, Fake Standings = T-3rd place)
This team’s record pretty much reflects how it has performed so far, winning the 3 weeks it should have and losing the 2 weeks it should have. Best statistical week was week 4 when the Dorchestahs would have beat every team except the Pigeon Boys. The biggest disappointment for owner Ben Sardella has got to be that his team hasn’t pulled away in the ever-important “moves” category. Sure, they’re in 1st, but only by a slim margin.
Also, for someone who’s given me so much shit for not giving his pitching any credit this year, his team is putting up some head-scratching pitching stats. Here are his up-to-date ranks: 1st in K’s (by a mind-boggling 62), 2nd in Wins, 5th in ERA, 7th in WHIP, and 12th in Saves. I WILL GIVE YOUR PITCHING PROPS WHEN IT DESERVES THEM. On the flip side, here are his hitting stats: 3rd in Runs & OBP, 4th in HR, 8th in RBI, and 11th in SB. One could argue his hitting is still superior to his pitching, as I’ve been doing all season.
The Good: Miguel Cabrera (.465OBP). Mark Reynolds (10HR). The big 4 of: Liriano, Gallardo, Hanson, Hughes.
The Bad: Posada & Kinsler (mostly because of injuries). Holliday & Sandoval. Brandon Morrow (6.69ERA). Strasburg & Chapman…you can look at this 2 ways: either you’re OK with maybe not winning the regular season because 2 of your bench spots are being taken up by guys who have no chance to make the major leagues until June or later (and you’re betting that they will help you in the playoffs), or you’re trying to put the best possible team together that can help you immediately, in which case Ben may have selected Ubaldo Jimenez over Strasburg…seems like that would have worked out. And also, if you draft a guy like Strasburg that early and keep him on your bench through these first few months, aren’t you somewhat obligated to make him a keeper for next year? What if he sucks this year though? I saw this exact same move blow up in someone’s face in fantasy football…though their version of Strasburg was JaMarcus Russell…so who knows.

3. Pigeon Boys (Real Standings = T-1st place, Fake Standings = 5th place)
Why are the Pigeon Boys way up at #3 in my rankings if they are in 5th in the Fake Standings? Mostly because those Fake Standings don’t take into account how the team is doing over the last couple weeks. But my rankings do. In weeks 4 & 5, the Pigeon Boys could have only lost to 1 team each week, coincidentally the same team each week--Red Red Even. After getting off to a somewhat lucky 2-0 record, the Pigeons stumbled big time in week 3, where the only team they could have beaten was Za Brah. It’s safe to say they’ve “righted the ship.”
The Neil Gariepy-owned Pigeon Boys are the classic “win big when they win” team. It seems like 3 of Neil’s 4 wins have been in the landslide category where you can look at the matchup on a Thursday and see that the week is all but over for his opponent. Now it’s just a matter of doing that consistently. The Pigeons have only played 1 formidable opponent so far, beating the Dorchestahs in week 2. So it’ll be interesting to see how they do against the cream of the fantasy crop in coming weeks.
Regardless of the 4-1 record, Neil’s gotta be a bit disappointed in the team so far. For a team that had such amazing keepers to choose from, the Pigeons aren’t really dominating any stats, except for Saves.
The Good: Ryan Braun (28RBI, .443OBP). Pedroia (laser show. Relax). Lincecum (would have 6 or 7 wins with a better bullpen). Harden (just the fact that he’s made it through 35 innings w/out injury). Papelbon + Bell + Rafael Soriano (25 combined Saves)
The Bad: Justin Upton (keeper). Aramis Ramirez (3HR, .226OBP). Chris Davis (see previous blog about highest-drafted player dropped [well at least until Fred dropped Edwin Jackson]). Trevor Hoffman (13ER in 11IP).

2. Red Red Even (Real Standings = T-5th place, Fake Standings = 1st place)
Easily the unluckiest team through 5 weeks. No one would benefit more if the fake standings were really real. The way this team got handed its 2 losses is almost devastating enough to make lesser owners (me) sell the team & run for cover. In week 2, the Evens lost to the Brets via the Runs Scored tiebreaker (they would have beaten 8 of the 11 teams that week). And even worse, in week 5 when they lost to the Boats ‘n Hoes, they would have beaten any other team they played that week. That is what I mean by “unluckiest team.” Oh and just for good measure…if Scott’s team had reached base 2 more times during the entire week against Aaron, they would have won. It was that close.
It’s that week 5 result against the Aaron-owned Boats ‘n Hoes that has Scott’s team ranked 2nd instead of 1st. Offensively the Evens rank in the top 3 in 4 of 5 categories. And while the pitching hasn’t been as consistent, they still rank 1st in ERA & WHIP.
The Good: Joey Votto, Youkilis, Werth. Wainwright, Oswalt, C.J. Wilson, Andrew Bailey.
The Bad: Ibanez, Rollins (DL - only 23AB).
Inconclusive: Rivera (only 9 innings pitched? Maybe starting to act his age w/ a recent injury? Let’s hope so.)

1. Boats ‘n Hoes (Real Standings = T-1st, Fake Standings = 2nd place)
All the data suggests the Boats ‘n Hoes should be in 1st place. Even though they didn’t know it at the time, Red Red Even & Boats ‘n Hoes were playing each other last week for the #1 spot in the Power Rankings. As mentioned above, Aaron’s team just barely delivered the W. So congrats, Pueto. #1 in the 1st ever Blog Power Rankings. And how is the #1 team rewarded? By getting 3 straight matchups against the best teams in the league…good luck with that.
The Boats’ only loss this season came via the Runs Scored tiebreaker to the Jew Lovers in week 3. If scoring was the same as last year, he’d still be undefeated. If we look back at the Fake Standings where a team is matched up against all 11 other teams in the league, here’s what the Boats’ week-by-week record looks like: 7-4, 8-3, 8-3, 8-3, 10-1. Now that’s what I call consistency. Aaron’s team has barely been in a position to lose all year.
So what’s the formula of a #1-ranked team? Offensively the Boats rank 1st in 3 categories (R, HR, RBI), 4th in OBP, and dead last in SB. And in pitching, the Boats are 1st in Wins, 5th in K & Saves, 6th in WHIP, and 8th in ERA. Clearly we’re looking at a much better offense than pitching.
The Good: Soto, Morneau, Kemp, Ethier. Chris Carpenter, Jered Weaver, Matt Capps (13 saves for the Nats? I didn’t even think they had 13 wins). The fact that the Boats have only made 3 moves is a testament to their obviously amazing draft.
The Bad: Brandon Phillips, Hanley (only because they are both keepers & underachieving right now). Chad Qualls, Jenks (maybe give up on the closer situation?). Worst in the league in steals when there are 4 guys on this team who stole 25+ last year. What an enigma…

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